IND vs NZ 5th T20I at Greenfield: Series Finale in Thiruvananthapurm

When India takes the field in the fifth and final T20I against New Zealand, they’re looking down the barrel of a 3-1 series deficit, but the Kiwis’ 50-run thrashing of them in Visakhapatnam has turned things around, and given them lots to work towards in preparation for the T20 World Cup. Coming racing into the Greenfield International Stadium in Thiruvananthapurm at 7:00 PM on Saturday, both teams have lots to prove. For India it’s essentially their last tuneup before the World Cup kicks off on February 7th, and for New Zealand, avoiding a series whitewash will be a huge morale-booster into the tournament.

Since their initial three losses, New Zealand discovered their mojo in the fourth match, and a 62 off 36 balls from Tim Seifert and Mitchell Santner’s all-round display made the difference. Unfortunately for India, they just couldn’t get the better of 215.

How the First Four Matches Have Played Out

The stats from the first three matches paint a pretty bleak picture, India laying down the law to New Zealand. They chased down a 209 target in 15.2 overs in Raipur, dismissed the visitors for 153, then ran them down in 10 overs in Guwahi, and fired off a massive 238 in Nagpur, while restricting the Kiwis to 190. The Indians were absolutely ripping it up with a strike rate of 210.98 per 100 balls, and yet, New Zealand won the fourth match.

Well-known to be a turning point in the series was the fourth match in Visakhapatnam, where New Zealand set their second-highest total against India, 215/7, and their bowlers made it virtually ungettable for Dube’s 65 off 23. This ended their nine-match losing streak against India, Australia and England, and also showed that the Indians have a soft spot for their batting order when their top three fail, collectively.

Abhishek Sharma’s Series: Firecracker Output and the Risk

Abhishek Sharma has been the firecracker of this series, and he opened the batting with 84 off 35 balls in Nagpur, made a duck in Raipur, batted an unbeaten 68 off 20 balls in Guwahi, and smashed his 14th ball fifty in a T20I, the second-fastest by any Indian.

It wasn’t all a success story though, his first-ball duck in Visakhapatnam was a reminder that his aggressive approach can sometimes backfire, but at the moment he’s the number one T20I batsman in the world, and 152 runs at a strike rate of 271.43 in this series shows why. You’ll notice he’s scored 86 sixes in 36 T20I innings, that’s putting him up there with the best openers globally, when tracking Glenn Phillips’ six-hitting exploits. Coming up against the Greenfield pitch, which is typically slower and helps out spinners, will be a test for whether he can scale back his massive hitting to outwit the opposition.

New Zealand’s Vizag Win: What Went Right

New Zealand got back into the game in the fourth T20I, thanks to Mitchell Santner claiming 3-26 in the middle-overs phase when India started to falter while chasing 216, and Jacob Duffy’s incredible return catch to dismiss Suryakumar Yadav off his own bowling showcased the precision that the Kiwis finally found. Matt Henry’s discipline with the new ball got rid of Abhishek first ball, setting the tone for the rest of the game.

The Kiwis collapsed to 168/6 in the Vizag game after scoring 100 runs in their first 8.1 overs, then absolutely hammered 47 runs off the last three overs, with Daryl Mitchell’s 19 runs off Bumrah’s penultimate over showing off his knack for finishing off the opposition in the death overs, which is why he’s such an invaluable asset. Over the series, Mitchell has batted at an average of 176 and hit 352 runs in just three innings.

Greenfield International Stadium: Low-Scoring Tendencies and Dew

The Thiruvananthapuram venue doesn’t have much history in T20 internationals, but the general rule is that bowlers dominate here. The surface is a spinner’s dream, and opening batting teams have habitually been able to scrape together around 145-150 runs. Evening matches at this venue also experience dew which may benefit the side chasing the target, and presents an intriguing challenge to India.

As they’ve chased in both of their losses this series, batting first may push them to see if they can post and defend a total, a feat they’ve only done twice in their T20I history. Varun Chakravarthy, who didn’t play in the Vizag game, is back in the fray and should relish the conditions. His 14 wickets in seven T20Is at a mind-boggling economy of 7.78 makes him the best Indian spinner in the format at this stage, and he’s not going to be able to wait to get back on the field.

India’s Middle-Order Reliance and the Kishan Factor

The full extent of India’s batting depth was laid bare and it became apparent that they’re reliant on their top four, when Ishan Kishan was ruled out of the fourth match with a minor problem. Rinku Singh and Hardik Pandya did try to mount a resistance but couldn’t take advantage of the situation when Dube was run out at a critical juncture.

Wicketkeeper Competition and Samson’s Form

Sanju Samson’s struggles in the last three innings, 24, 28 and 24, coming fast off the back of his golden duck in Guwati, have given rise to a genuine competition for the wicketkeeper’s spot, and Saturday is essentially his last chance to stake his claim, as the team gets ready to go to the World Cup.

Suryakumar Yadav’s Captaincy Form on Slower Surfaces

Suryakumar Yadav, the Indian captain, still hasn’t found his rhythm, after his 82 not out in Raipur was a magnificent effort, but has since only managed a meager 32 in Nagpur and eight in Vizag. Coming from a captain, his form is even more significant, especially on slower surfaces where his out-of-the-box thinking is at its peak.

Toss Trend and the Chasing Advantage

Well-known, captains have favored bowling first at the Greenfield Stadium, out of the fourteen T20I games played there, nine have been won by the chasing side. Although the dew makes it difficult for the bowling teams in the second innings, this effect shouldn’t be exaggerated.

If India wins the toss and sends in their batters, Abhishek’s attacking play could be the key to setting a massive total, and if New Zealand bats first, they need to be very careful with their middle order, something they didn’t do so well in the first three matches.

Bowling Options and Role Clarity

India and New Zealand are both finalizing their combinations, and the speed and efficiency with which Ravi Bishnoi took apart the Guwati batsmen (2-18) is something the team has thoroughly enjoyed. The irreplaceable Jasprit Bumrah’s 3-17 in the third match was a reminder of his worth, however the management is aware that he won’t be able to play every game in the World Cup.

When looking back on the Vizag match, New Zealand proved they can put their plans into practice to secure a victory, especially after the injury of Zak Foulkes who gave up 67 runs in Raipur, where he was replaced by Kyle Jamieson. Ish Sodhi’s 2-23 in Vizag, was on the receiving end of a 29-run over by Dube but is still getting his name in the wickets column.

Momentum, Crowd, and the Bigger Picture

Coming into this series, the form of India says they’re the ones to beat.

They’ve got an eleven-match winning streak in T20I bilateral series, and show they can totally control the game all over the course of three phases, but the boost New Zealand got from Vizag has turned this match into something much more captivating than it could have been.

Well-known for their electric atmosphere, the Thiruvananthapurm crowd will fill up Greenfield Stadium on Saturday, dreaming of witnessing history.

A 4-1 series win for India would be the icing on the cake of a fantastic home summer and send them into the World Cup with loads of momentum and confidence. Fans who are into the details of the match, the ins and outs of team performance, and the shifting odds can also make the most of the detailed analysis provided by Winbuzz. Saturday’s match kicks off at 7:00 PM local time, and the question now is who will be able to adapt better to the bowler-friendly conditions.

Final Notes Before the World Cup

Coming into this match both teams have already secured their spot in the World Cup, now it’s about who will get the upper hand in the ongoing series, who will be on a roll, and who will be on a high, and is better prepared for the tournament ahead. Abhishek Sharma’s astronomical 152 runs at 271.43 strike rate but two golden ducks show that he lives on the edge before the most important thing, the World Cup. New Zealand’s 50 run win in Vizag marked the end of their nine match losing streak against the top teams, and laid bare the soft underbelly of India’s middle order when the top batsmen fall early.

They’ll be facing a pitch that traditionally limits the scores to 145-150 in T20Is, when India take on New Zealand at the Greenfield Stadium in the series decider. Coming hustling over into the evening matches, the dew will be a boon for the chasing side and the spinners will start to get assistance as the game wears on.

Well-known for their 11-match T20I winning streak, India leads the series 3-1, but their last loss was in a chase, and made people wonder if they can execute their death overs effectively against high-quality spin.

Sanju Samson has been quite inconsistent, knocking in three scores under thirty, and Ishan Kishan’s injury brings up the real question of who will be the wicketkeeper for the T20 World Cup.

Saturday’s final match is basically more than just bragging rights.

If India win, they’ll be on top of the world this summer, and will go into the World Cup as absolute favourites. New Zealand, finally figuring out the Vizag formula, will be eager to show that their last win wasn’t a fluke, and that they’re back in the game.

This pitch at the Greenfield Stadium will be a far cry from the run-fests we’ve seen in the earlier part of the series, the spinners are going to be the real game-changers, batsmen will have to work much harder for their runs, and the decisions made around the toss and the make-up of the teams will be more crucial than ever.

I’ll be looking out for Abhishek’s approach to the slower surface, Bumrah’s death-overs work if India sends New Zealand in, and whether Santner can repeat his Vizag magic, this one will set the stage for the biggest tournament of the year.

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